Nuclear dilemmas to die for

Abstract

• Crisis instability on the Korean peninsula entails risks of both inadvertent and nuclear escalation from North Korea during a crisis or limited military conflict.

• The pressure to escalate is exacerbated by the significant asymmetry in military capabilities between North Korea on one side and the U.S. and South Korea on the other.

• The military doctrines and postures of all three adversaries, as well as the geography of the peninsula and limits on North Korean intelligence and surveillance will continue to affect Kim Jong Un’s incentives for a nuclear first-strike.