Overraskelsesangrep i operasjoner: Utnyttelse og håndtering

Abstract

Surprise attacks are a fundamental and lasting part of warfare and diplomacy. They possess such force multiplying power that countless nations and their militaries throughout history have tried to exploit their fruits in pursuit of victory on the battlefield. Exactly how do surprise attacks lead to success in military operations? How can they be exploited in military campaigns? And when it comes to defense planning, how can such attacks be anticipated, preempted, avoided, or handled? This thesis seeks to clarify and define fundamental characteristics of surprise and surprise attacks, from their neuroscientific roots to their causes and effects in war. The military notion of surprise is explored through four main theoretical concepts: Centre of Gravity, tempo, leadership, and maneuver. The thesis argues that the most important element of surprise in operations is to achieve the purpose of the attack before the victim can respond according to his own potential. Surprise attacks temporarily disrupt normal power relations and become a potent force multiplier in orders of magnitude. The thesis also looks at various factors that are critical to maintaining the initiative until the strategic goal of the war or campaign has been reached. Finally, the study asks how the Norwegian Armed Forces can develop strategies to handle a surprise attack on Norway. Also, questions about national vulnerabilities, concepts and force structure are pursued to explore possible implications for Norwegian defense policy.