Forsvarets evne til å tilpasse seg sikkerhetpolitiske utviklingstrekk : en analyse av Forsvarets endringer i perioden 1992-2006

Abstract

This thesis is an analysis of the changes in the main elements of Norwegian defence policy and the changes in the configuration of the Norwegian armed forces between 1992 and 2006. The main question is how can the changes in the defence policy and configuration of the armed forces be explained. In order to answer this question I have developed a model to help me structuring the analysis. The model is based on Graham T Allison’s article “Conceptual Models and the Cuba Missile Crisis” (1969) and on Robert D Putnam’s article “Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games.” (1988). The main findings in this thesis have been: 1) on too 2001 the principle of consensus had a strong restrictive influence on the changes, 2) the economic limitations where the main driver to changes on too 2002, 3) the changes in the configuration of the armed forces have been influenced directly of the changes in the global security environment, 4) there are no evidence that regional policy interests have influenced on neither the changes in configuration or defense policy, 5) the different actors situation awareness influence strongly on their willingness and adaptation to changes.