Nato-etterretningens skiftende fokus: Fra det sydlige Skandinavia til det “høye nord“ på slutten av 1950-tallet

Abstract

The historiography of the Cold War in Scandinavia gives a good overview of the period and the main developments. Newly released archival material may still bring new perceptions to the established overall knowledge, and not least bring more detailed accounts of events and processes. In this article, we thoroughly examine the overarching intelligence assessments of NATO – the Standing Group’s annual assessments of the Soviet threat. This is in order to examine when and why NATO intelligence shifted focus from the southern parts of Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea to the High North. The general and agreed historiography states that this happened in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Our chronological review of the archival material supports this generally agreed knowledge, but also finds clear evidence that for the highest-level NATO intelligence community this change of perception may be specified to 1956-57.